GW4 Review – GUESS WHO’S BACK

WELCOME TO THE

GW4 REVIEW –

GUESS WHO’S BACK

Good Afternoon FFUKers,

I trust you are all catching your collective breath after the hype fest that became GW4!! I have never known one transfer to cause so much carnage within the FPL community with Wildcards being pressed, hits being taken, months of research and selection being ripped up all for the return of one man! Sensible heads attempted to digest the pros and cons of his valuation, age, finishing ability, Utds perceived inability to cross. What would it mean for Bruno, Greenwood, the Prem? the list was endless. The boys on Blackbox probably said it best when in response to every sensible suggestion to hold the line prior to transferring in with this statement….. “but its Ronaldoooo…” and like that his ownership went through the roof, circa 20% by the GW4 KO, now over 40%!!!

Now personally i manged to get to Wednesday of the International break, before i broke! Sold Bruno and Ings, brought in Ronaldo and Torres with complete disregard of FDR, stats or indeed the confines of my FPL war room. As mentioned within the pre season reveal, in my humble opinion the psychology of decision making is as important as the stats when it comes to final FPL position. Poor management!

So onto the Gameweek, Spurs had a nose bleed having realised they were top of the table and reminded us all what it is to be “Spursy” by taking a 3-0 hammering from Palace, in part Tanganga’s red providing the catalyst for Palace to show they are making strides in the right direction under Vieira. Edouard coming on in the 84th minute and scoring 2 goals on his debut has given him a predicted goals per game ratio of circa 300!! Gallagher continues to represent excellent value for money with his returns so far.

In the battle of the cheap GKs, Sanchez came out on top with Raya unfortunately conceding as Brighton scored the winner through a Trossard strike in the dying moments of the game.

At Old Trafford there was only really going to be one outcome as Ronaldo fired on his second debut netting a 2 yard tap in just before the break and then firing in from a Shaw assist in the second half. Pogba continues to look good value and is quickly becoming an assist king, his ROI looks impressive if he can maintain this form, at least until his new contract is confirmed!!

Having missed out on Captaining Antonio the previous week, i managed to convince myself that he was a better option than Ronaldo. 90 minutes later with a blank return, a red card and a double up on his -1 to a -2 i was left in the hurt locker!! Turgid!

Wolves continue to have excellent underlying stats however are still not quite turning those into FPL rewards. A 2-0 win over Watford looks convincing, however Jiminez still appears to be struggling to find the form that makes him such a valuable FPL asset.

At the Bridge Chelsea continue to look like real title contenders, with Lukaku not allowing Ronaldo to take all of the GW glory by bagging a brace of his own in an excellent 3-0 demolition of Villa.

On Sunday it was Salah’s turn to highlight why we fawn over the FPL premium assets as he banged in a neat strike in a 3-0 win over Leeds. TAA looks like he has started the season flying, moving inside at every opportunity with Hendo there to cover for him has almost given him OOP status!! Salah did again manage to doge the BPs much to the frustration of his owners, whilst Raphina continues to flatter to deceive as an FPL asset.

KINGS OF THE GW

Some strong performances in the Kings of the GW, with Edouard finding his way in there after his 9 minute cameo!! at 6.5m he could be one to watch as a returning enabler. TAA is quickly becoming a mainstay as i am sure will Ronaldo and Lakaku

FFUK TOP 20

Well what can i say, Tim McEwan (1st) continues to dominate the league having seemingly made the No.1 position his own this season, well done mate!! Top FFUKer this week goes to goes to JAMES TUCKER (94th) with an excellent return of 86 points. The Ronaldo, Lukaku 1-2 working a treat for him!! Well done!!

CONTS UPDATE

Unfortunately it is that time again, the CONTS league is truly relentless, this weeks we have to say goodbye to MARK WOODS and the unfortunate STEVE ALMOND who leaves us by virtue of having a lower overall position than MOHAMMED NASRALLA.

OK so it is generally at this point that i wish you well for the next game week, however i have decided to share with those of you that have got this far some stat updates as of GW4. To offer nothing more but food for thought.

STAT ATTACK

I have update the TPPM charts to offer an insight into ROI based upon current form for some of the heavier hitters in the FPL fraternity. The scatter graphs below attempt to marry Price with Points to determine a measure of value (TPPM)

DEF

As it stands Duffy is far and away the most cost efficient way of scoring points generating 66 points per million spent by the TPPM formula. Whilst Trent continues to outscore the field his TPPM remains relatively low due to the cost to get him in. How is Shaw looking …. still in my team!

MID

As always pay close attention to the scales when considering team composition.

FWD

Ant is leading the way as we know when it comes to points gained and at his 7.9m price point his efficiency is excellent. Can Dennis sustain his strong start?

All positions #TEAMCOMPOSITION

Some interesting stats for consideration when it comes to optimum team formation, i will leave that up to you…

Finally #Premium

As the Admin crew will be aware i had a bit of a rant during the week listening to Blackbox, the discussion was around Lukaku or Ronaldo and how many points they could conceivably score this season. Lauding the fact they will score every week….. well of course the should that’s why they are premium i cried … but is that enough and what makes it enough from the perspective of ROI, as the game mechanics/ budget dictates we cant have everyone!!

So i turned TPPM on its head in a bid to work out what a “good” weekly score needs to be for each of the premiums to generate optimum use of budget. To do this i took a base line from the previous 3 seasons of 42 points per million using the TPPM formula.

TPPM = (TP-BP) / (AV-BV) which becomes TP = (TPPM X (AV-BV)) + BP and more importantly offers the following values.

I have filtered the above based upon points required per week to meet the optimum TPPM investment band of 42 PPM. I have also thrown in a few mid price players to offer comparison on just how “good” premium players need to be to merit their investment from your budget. One point is that C choice obviously has an impact here! Its all just food for thought!

Now it is time to wish you all good luck, its been a pleasure.

Roni Friel (Southbourne Celtic 43rd)

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