FORM vs. FIXTURE
There is always ‘talk’ about whether the selection of a player should be based on one of two key factors.
Either favourable forthcoming fixtures OR favourable current form!
I have always gone with Fixtures.
I had this dilemma recently with DCL. Everton’s 6 ‘tricky’ fixtures in 7 matches gave me a decision to make! These 6 ‘tricky’ are all 4 on the FDR scale.
I decided to jettison him for Jimenez who has ‘easier’ fixtures – five with a 2 FDR and one with a 4 FDR.
So what does DCL do against Arsenal – SCORE!
Annoyed and wanting statistics over my arbitrary decision making to give me answers I decided to ‘analyse’ nineteen FPL players – the top ten high-scoring plus nine ‘significant’ others to see what their average score is against teams from each FDR category so far this season.
Here are my findings: –
|FDR Average Score|
If we stay with DCL it shows he actually scores very poorly against the weakest (2) and strongest (5) opposition! He is at his most prolific against teams with a 3 or 4 FDR! Looks like I made a mistake!!
The ‘big guns’, KDB & Salah show contempt to everyone! They score strongly against one and all!
TAA, Mane & Aubameyang score consistently well but their scores do dip slightly against 4 FDR opposition.
Vardy is interesting. People think he does better against stronger opposition – wrong! He’s actually a flat track bully! Well this season anyway!
Jimenez, Pukki & Grealish oddly all score well against all teams apart from those with a FDR of 3!
Ings, Robbo, VVD & Firmino all have a consistent scoring pattern against all opposition.
Abraham and Richarlison also score well, but they dip against teams with a 4 FDR. Ricky’s score against the very best – those with a 5 FDR is pretty impressive! But that ironically is just in the two matches against Liverpool & Man City!
Again there is a misconception that Aguero scores freely against everyone. The stats show though, like Vardy he’s largely a dominator of inferior sides!
Maddison is slightly lower in terms of scoring but it’s super consistent against all sides .
Martial, for me is the most interesting. His scoring is phenomenal! Probably the fifth best out of all the players. The trouble is, he misses too many matches through injury (ahem)!
I don’t know if there are any conclusions or whether the information is just ‘interesting’!
For me, there is definitely a ‘balance’, but the table clearly shows a ‘quality’ player will score well against most / any opposition, so I am going to abandon my ‘Fixtures’ approach and trust my players whoever they’re against!
I’m also keeping the top five – KDB, Salah, TAA, Mane and Vardy in my team for the rest of the season!