Now then FFUKers, here’s some last minute food for thought before tomorrow’s deadline. And don’t worry, I’ve kept it brief so you can get back to your tinkering
I’ve written a few articles over the years on “PP90” and “PP90£” and thought I’d revisit these metrics with the current data to see if it threw up any cheeky gems for our GW1 squads.
“PP90” is a simple stat I’ve devised – it’s basically ‘total points’ divided by ‘minutes played’, multiplied by 90. It kind of sounds like ‘points per match’, but does spit out slightly different results. If you then divide PP90 by the player’s price you get PP90£, which adds a ‘value’ element to the metric. By the way, for full transparency, I ignored any player who played less than 400 minutes last season as that tends to throw up some oddities.
The idea is to identify players who might not have been first choice last season but came off the bench regularly, and performed well when they did get time on the pitch. These players might not stand out in the ‘points per match’ or ‘value (season)’ metrics, but if they can nail down regular starts this season they could be fantastic value.
There’s not much point analysing the keepers as they almost always play 90 minutes every time they make an appearance. But in case you were wondering, Guaita, Allison and Raya come out at the top of the list (in that order).
In terms of defenders, the top of the list is dominated by Chelsea and Spurs. No surprise there really. Chelsea defenders definitely look under-priced this season, so those that can avoid rotation will be in plenty of our teams. And should any of the plethora of Spurs wingbacks end up nailed on they’ll turn out to be amazing value.
However, the majority of substitutions tend to be midfielders and forwards, so I’ve focussed on those positions here.
Here are the midfielders who fare best for ‘PP90£’ (I’ve highlighted the ones that I think are a bit more interesting):
No sign of Salah or Son on this list! They don’t really represent value, but I imagine there will be very few teams that have neither due to their captain potential. In fact there are only two players on this list who cost more than £7.5 – Mahrez and Kulu.
It goes without saying that if Mahrez can get plenty of starts he’ll be excellent value – although that’s got to come with an assumption that he stays on pens. Maybe his lofty position on this list will be enough to help you conclude if you’re deliberating over Mahrez vs Foden vs Grealish vs Bilva ??
Kulu has a bit more competition this season (namely Richarlison) and personally I’d say he over-performed in the second half of last season. So I’ll be avoiding him, at least to start with.
But there are plenty of cheap options here who could be worth sticking in as enablers if you think they’re going to get regular starts.
Olise is a personal favourite of mine and is definitely on my watchlist once
Palace’s fixtures perk up a bit. Wissa is even higher up the list, but without Eriksen, he (and Brentford in general) might dry up a bit.
I’ve seen Martinelli and Bailey in plenty of drafts, and based on PP90£ they should be good picks… if they can nail down regular starts (I’m beginning to sound like a broken record – but that’s the whole point!!).
Ok, so what about the forwards?
Intriguingly, three of the top nine on the list are Palace strikers. Each of them did well in spurts when given time on the pitch last season, but will any of them be able to pin down that regular starting role? If any of them can, these stats suggest that they should be great value.
Daka and Iheanacho are another interesting pair. If Vardy picks up an injury (which is highly likely at some point) then we should seriously consider drafting one of these guys in quick-sharp. Personally I think Daka has more favour with Brodgers so would opt for him.
And what about Jesus in 12th spot. Based on this metric he’s a sensible pick. When you add in his pre-season form and great first five fixtures there’s no wonder he’s in 73% of teams!
Right, time to get back to tinkering. Good luck FFUKers!!