Well hello FFUKers, here we find ourselves on the precipice of FPL season 22/23, full of hopes, dreams and expectation for our 276th iteration of our squads. Probably 277th by the time you finish reading this treasure trove of stats from the vault. It does have that feeling of Christmas Eve within the WhatsApp chat at the moment, particularly after last nights fantastic Live Team Reveal from 5 of our top Managers. There was some great food for thought in there, as well as some differing strategies and opinions, which is great to see! #WhatTemplate?.
“Nothing Comforts Anxiety Like A Little Nostalgia” – Morpheus
As those of you that have been around this particular block a couple of times know, as an FPL manager I do enjoy a Stat! A couple of years back when musing about team composition, player selection, premium utilisation I stumbled upon a method of using historical performance aligned to new season player values, providing direct correlation in selection with reference to our 100m budget and so the concept of True Points Per Million (TPPM) was born. I have shared and used the analytical indicators ever since with an improving level of FPL performances ensuing year on year.
For those of you that have already read the Maths you can skip to the Stats, for those of you interested in the concept please read on as the following will provide an understanding of the data.
True Points Per Million (TPPM)
The principles of this post are inspired by the following statement,
Your transfer budget is significantly less than you think!
In order to purchase the 15 players required for your squad you have a minimum cash commitment of 64m as dictated by team composition (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m). Leaving 36m to be spent developing your squad and maximising your Total Points return. The impact of this can be considered as follows:
To purchase Erling Håland at 11.5 m you may consider you have spent 11.5% of your 100m budget on one player and rightly “tighten the belt” on some others, using “enablers” to offset your expenditure. The reality is that you have actually spent a considerably larger proportion of your variable budget than you think, with Håland valued at 7m more than a base FWD you have spent 19.4% of your variable budget of 36m, a LOT of belt tightening required!!
With this principle in mind and the notion of making your 36m work for you in the most effective way possible choose the RED Pill and read on!
When considering available budget if we agree that the real variable is 36m and not the 100m then we can begin to understand how to use this as efficiently as possible when considering the points return of the team, TPPM.
To obtain TPPM for each player I apply the following, (note this years stats are an average of the previous 4 years FPL returns, there are some modifications for positional changes, eg Mbeumo)
Determine the Average Score (AS) obtained by the top performing lowest priced obtainable players. I do this in order to baseline the points available when spending the core cash commitment of 64m on (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m). The average has been calculated from the past 4 years stats using the top performing, 2xGK, 3xDef, 3xMid & 2xFwd, from each season.
Calculate each players individual average True Total Points (TTP), obtained by subtracting Average Score (AS) per position, from average Total Points (TP) per player.
Acquire True Value (TV) by subtracting 22/23 player price from the positional base player price, as discussed with regard to True Budget.
We can now apply the following formula to each player: TPPM=TTP/TV
This formula provides a direct insight into the efficiency of every 0.5m you spend of your variable 36m. This however does not tell the whole story… not by half in fact! As we know points make prizes and efficiency alone does not guarantee this as you would underspend your available budget. Therefore, when analysing each position, I use a scatter diagram to show the correlation and relationship between TPPM and average Total Points over the 4 years. Please pay close attention to the scales within the scatter diagrams as these “may” offer you significant insight into optimal team formation.
“It’s So Easy To Forget How Much Noise The Matrix Pumps Into Your Head Until You Unplug” – Niobe
If ever there was case for the noise being deafening, the forums, twitter sphere and WhatsApp chat for fantasy football must be a contender for the greatest example on earth! With this in mind I am an advocate of treading your own path and enjoying the ride, so enjoy the following and make your own conclusions. I do hope you all find some value!
“Did You Know Hope And Despair Are Nearly Identical In Code?” – The Analyst
The scatter diagram above provides a graphical correlation between average Total Points (TP) scored over the past 4 seasons. (Note: if only 1 or 2 seasons have been played this is allowed for within the average Total Points calculation). The data label colours indicate how many seasons of data are available on each player, Green=4/ Yellow=3/ Orange=2/ Red =1.
Based upon the TPPM calculations Meslier 4.5m @ Leeds provides the greatest bang for your buck statistically delivering a TPPM haul of 189 per million spent, however when we add the qualitative knowledge of Phillips departure to City do we have confidence in the post Bielsa era to deliver the same level of returns. We are left with a similar conundrum when looking at the next GK on the list in the shape of little Pickford 4.5m @ Everton, he has 4 solid years of data indicating a TPPM return of 183, however with Everton considered one of the favourites for relegation we again ask ourselves can he maintain the previous seasons returns.
The general school of thought when it comes to DEF selection appears to be “Big at the back” utilising some of the best Wingbacks in the game. To an extent this rings true when viewing the hauls of Robbo, TAA & Cancelo to name but a few! As ever however the name of the game is maximising your Return on Investment (ROI) which means price point must be considered to achieve value for money.
The review of the Defensive option suggest a couple of great options to maximise your ROI, Jansson 4.5m @ Brentford suggests a fantastic return of 88 TPPM. Gabriel 5m @ Arsenal also stands out as a really interesting option after last years performance. Finally I have been banging on about the value represented by VVD 6.5m @ Liverpool over the past few years; when he is compared with Robbo and TAA, his value means he becomes a real contender as your PRIMARY Liverpool defensive option. In fact find below the comparable data on the Pool defensive trio over the past 4 year period.
I really enjoyed pouring over the data from this one, particularly when considering the ROI on the 8m Mid options. See the data below specific to this price bracket.
Some interesting stats, particularly when you look at the performance of Mount 8m @ Chelsea over a sustained period of time. The big stand out for me here is Soucek 5.5m @ West Ham, I love the guy, a relatively quiet season last season however he has had a great summer break post the internationals, has scored 2/2 in pre season and the Hammers forums are raving about his performances, if it wasn’t for the initial FDR of West Ham’s fixtures he would be in my team! Definitely one to watch! Finally in this area Bowen 8.5m @ West Ham still looks like a favourable option even with his 8.5m price tag, suggesting a TPPM value of 21.
Personally I find the FWD position very difficult to quantify for the new season with Jesus 8m @ Arsenal having an EO of 73.9% after his move from City stealing the show! The big question on everyone’s lips is how will Håland 11.5m @ Man City fit in, will he hit the ground running or take some time to adjust?
Edouard 5.5m @ Palace appears to represent a really interesting option for those with an extra 1m to upgrade a base 4.5 FWD. Mbeumo 6m @Brentford also suggests offering a nice ROI with a TPPM of 47, this is after statistical adjustment for his positional change to FWD.
“The Choice is an illusion” – Bugs
Well all it has been a pleasure once again to take you down this meandering road of analytics. I wish you all the very best for the new season, remember to enjoy the challenge!
Roni Friel (Southbourne Celtic)