“I know why you’re here. I know what you’ve been doing – why you hardly sleep and why night after night you sit by your computer. Your looking for it, I know because I was once looking for the same thing”…. FPL glory!! Trinity (ish!)
One year ago, I was welcomed to the FFUK community by a comment that stuck, “Welcome to the Real World”. I felt like I had taken the RED Pill and had my eyes opened to an array of knowledge, expertise and information that I couldn’t previously have imagined, with the outcome being my highest ever FPL finish (112,210) and a run to the final 3 in the Conts!
I am an unremarkable player with an unremarkable record; however I have an idea around the conceptual application of stat analysis to team selection, which I am happy to discuss with you fine people of the FFUK community. Primarily as way of repaying Chris for his tip off last season about a guy who would simply become known as “the Lord”, a GW1 enabler that became the stuff of legend! The principles of this post are inspired by the following statement, Your transfer budget is significantly less than you think!
In order to purchase the 15 players required for your squad you have a minimum cash commitment of 64m as dictated by team composition (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m). Leaving 36m to be spent developing your squad and maximising your Total Points return. The impact of this can be considered as follows:
To purchase Salah at 12m you may consider you have spent 12% of your budget on one player and rightly “tighten the belt” on some others using “enablers” to offset your expenditure. The reality is that you have actually spent a considerably larger proportion of your variable budget than you think, with Salah being 7.5m more than a base midfielder you have spent 20.8% of your variable budget of 36m, a LOT of belt tightening required!!
With this principle in mind and the notion of making your 36m work for you in the most effective way possible choose the RED Pill and read on!
True Points Per Million (TPPM)
When considering team selection, I have always been “The Hunch” type of guy, basing selection upon my love of the game and latent knowledge of Teams and Players. This season I am going to incorporate a quantitative approach to selection based upon the 19/20 historical stats spliced with the 20/21 player values.
When considering available budget if we agree that the real variable is 36m and not the 100m then we can begin to understand how to use this as efficiently as possible when considering the points return of the team, TPPM.
To obtain TPPM for each player I apply the following,
Determine the Average Score (AS) obtained by the top performing lowest obtainable players. I do this in order to baseline the points available when spending the core cash commitment of 64m on (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m).
Calculate each players individual True Total Points (TTP), obtained by subtracting AS from TTP.
Acquire True Value (TV) by subtracting 20/21 player actual value from the base player price, as discussed around True Budget.
We can now apply the following formula to each player: TPPM=TTP/TV
This formula provides a direct insight into the efficiency of every 0.5m you spend of your variable 36m. This however does not tell the whole story… not by half in fact! As we know points make prizes and efficiency alone does not guarantee this as you would underspend your available budget. Therefore, when analysing each position, I use a scatter diagram to show the correlation and relationship between TPPM and TP.
“Show me” Neo
As can be seen, you may have to zoom in! Ryan offers the most efficient use of budget when considering a GK, however Pope is clearly top scorer, the extra 1m reduces your Return on Investment (ROI) when considering his purchase.
When it comes to defenders, I would strongly advise consideration of Egan, however with Henderson called back to Utd will the Blades remain so solid or begin to hurt his returns?
Adjustment has been made to some of the figures to allow for positional changes and minutes played last season based upon a forecast expectation for this season (stat refinement). Greenwood appears as the standout pick for the season with an incredible TPPM ratio of 51.7! Is the Prince at City worth the extra investment when considering Premium Expenditure?
The attacking stats generated quite a surprise with Ayew the standout option if he can replicate his form from last season and is definitely worth consideration!
In an effort to stop “group think” I’ve purposefully minimised the summary text for each position, all the data is however in the charts.
As with all stat analysis this is just another optic with which to view the world of FPL. The skill of the Manager remains crucial in utilising the insight it provides dependent upon the plethora of variables we deal with; Fixtures, Form, Injury, Price change, COVID to name but a few.
It also fails to predict the incoming transfers for the new season as well as promoted team performance, however I am of the view the Pareto Principle – 80/20 rule applies here!
There is one open ended question this application of TPPM as a method of predicting ROI leaves, how do we utilise and more importantly maximise Premium Expenditure and what that means for team composition? Look out for Part 2!
I know what you’re thinking, ‘cause right now I’m thinking the same thing. Actually I’ve been thinking it ever since I got here: Why oh why didn’t I take the BLUE pill!! Cypher
Roni Friel – Southbourne Celtic