Well hello again FFUKers, I trust you are all currently swimming in stats, battling with a mixture of anticipation and sheer terror at the thought of confirming your GW1 FPL teams! It feels like only yesterday i was penning my previous Stat Attack post “Wake up” in preparation for last years anything but normal season.
“Believe me when i say we have a difficult time ahead of us. But if we are to be prepared for it, we must first shed our fear of it. I stand here before you now, truthfully unafraid…. I remember that I am not here because of the path that lies before me but because of the path that lies behind me” Morpheus
I have once again spent time considering how we quantify and indeed qualify value within the FPL mathematical framework. The aim being to maximise the Return On Interest (ROI) generated by every million we spend of our budget and its knock on effect to squad composition. I have once again settled on the conceptual application of True Points Per Million (TPPM) as my favoured analytical framework. For those that missed last years post, or indeed have stored it in the minds archive, i will once again provide and overview of the concept prior to providing the all important analysis below. I hope you all thoroughly enjoy the read, please remember i remain “an unremarkable player with an unremarkable record”.
True Points Per Million (TPPM)
The principles of this post are inspired by the following statement,
Your transfer budget is significantly less than you think!
In order to purchase the 15 players required for your squad you have a minimum cash commitment of 64m as dictated by team composition (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m). Leaving 36m to be spent developing your squad and maximising your Total Points return. The impact of this can be considered as follows:
To purchase Bruno Fernandes at 12m you may consider you have spent 12% of your 100m budget on one player and rightly “tighten the belt” on some others using “enablers” to offset your expenditure. The reality is that you have actually spent a considerably larger proportion of your variable budget than you think, with Bruno being 7.5m more than a base midfielder you have spent 20.8% of your variable budget of 36m, a LOT of belt tightening required!!
With this principle in mind and the notion of making your 36m work for you in the most effective way possible choose the RED Pill and read on!
When considering available budget if we agree that the real variable is 36m and not the 100m then we can begin to understand how to use this as efficiently as possible when considering the points return of the team, TPPM.
To obtain TPPM for each player I apply the following, (note this years stats are an average of the previous 3 years FPL returns, there are some modifications for outliers such as the VVD injury from last season)
Determine the Average Score (AS) obtained by the top performing lowest priced obtainable players. I do this in order to baseline the points available when spending the core cash commitment of 64m on (2xGK@4m + 5xDef@4m + 5xMid@4.5m + 3xAtt@4.5m). The average has been calculated from the past 3 years stats using the top performing, 2xGK, 3xDef, 3xMid & 2xFwd, from each season.
Calculate each players individual average True Total Points (TTP), obtained by subtracting Average Score (AS) per position, from average Total Points (TP) per player.
Acquire True Value (TV) by subtracting 21/22 player price from the positional base player price, as discussed with regard to True Budget.
We can now apply the following formula to each player: TPPM=TTP/TV
This formula provides a direct insight into the efficiency of every 0.5m you spend of your variable 36m. This however does not tell the whole story… not by half in fact! As we know points make prizes and efficiency alone does not guarantee this as you would underspend your available budget. Therefore, when analysing each position, I use a scatter diagram to show the correlation and relationship between TPPM and average TP. Please pay close attention to the scales within the scatter diagrams as these “may” offer you significant insight into optimal team formation.
“Show me” Neo
The scatter diagram above provides a graphical correlation between average Total Points (TP) scored over the past 3 seasons (Note: if only 1 or 2 seasons have been played this is allowed for within the average Total Points calculation).
The optimum selection 4.0m GK over the last 3 seasons has returned just 24 points, therefore as can be seen a small investment from your variable budget can reap excellent returns when assessing the ROI of each half million spent when viewed in TPPM. The chart does highlight that there is an optimum investment before TPPM starts to reduce even when average Total Points scored increases. This leaves a decision when considering your premium expenditure over and above pure efficiency of investment. (Keep checking the scale 😉 ).
As can be seen, Sanchez at Brighton provides the highest ROI for each 0.5m spent based upon this seasons pricing and the previous 3 seasons Average Total Points with a whopping TPPM score of 154. I will leave the consideration of whether Martinez, Allison or indeed Emerson is worth the extra investment up to you.
“… you have already made the choice, now you need to understand it” The Oracle
When considering Defensive options TPPM highlights an interesting array of talent for consideration, can Coufal have another season like his last, with the promise of a 44 point ROI. Only bettered in efficiency by Coady with a forecast TPPM ROI of 45. I previously mentioned VVD and an allowance i made within the stats to negate last years injury, utilising his 2018 and 19 returns to generate his Average Total Points. This has resulted in him being a stand out option for the new season, however the big IF is whether he has fully recovered from injury and is he the same player! Nothing it appears is ever simple!
When it comes to the midfield there is a little celebrated player at Leeds who comes out as the pick of the bunch with this years valuation correlated against previous performance, Harrison with a potential return of 51 TPPM. Soucek at the Hammers is a close second with a score of 42.
Now for the hard bit, the most difficult thing to watch over an FPL GW are those premium assets that we don’t have go wild, especially when half the world seem to have them captained. This i suppose is the trick of the whole game, do we accept or want a significant reduction in TPPM efficiency and the associated impact to your variable budget. The stats are there to see, premium players deliver a significant reduction in ROI for every million spent, however when Capped those reductions in efficiency can be somewhat mitigated on a singular basis.
Well FFUKers onto the final hurdle, our forward line options, those of you who are part of the WhatsApp group will remember the joys of the Pukki Party 2 years ago when the Finnish magician broke onto the FPL scene with a bang! His stats from that season aligned with this years valuation have once again brought him to the fore with a forecast TPPM return of 67 points return on your 6m investment (1.5m variable budget).
Jiminez looks well positioned to offer a great return, however similar to VVD it is difficult to determine if he will reach the levels he previously has upon his return. Finally i found Kane to be a really interesting stat in this one, his ROI of 19 is way below the efficiency curve. This is processed against a back drop of an average True Points over the last 3 season of 187 and a transfer value of 12.5m!! With his possible City move in mind i applied a score of 250 to the calculator for a bit of fun/ interest, which is higher than he has ever achieved, he still only comes out with a TPPM ROI of 27 with that 12.5m valuation.
As i mentioned at the beginning I hope that the time you have spent reading this post has provided some food for thought and a positive ROI! I look forward to the new season and to reviewing the predictions of the analysis above.
“Hope, it is the quintessential human delusion, simultaneously the source of your greatest strength, and your greatest weakness” The Architect
Good luck to you all,
Roni Friel (Southbourne Celtic)