Do you still WANNA WIN THE FFUK LEAGUE? Then Read On…
To be a successful FFUKer, there are so many pertinent questions…
- Class vs Form?
- Nailed On vs Rotation Risk?
- Favourable Fixtures vs Quality?
- Moneyball (Daz)?
… that need answering!
The trouble is, they are all very subjective – you could put a case forward for each, there is no single right answer, which basically renders them all rhetorical!
Not what you want to hear!
Well I’m not going to leave it there, ‘winter is coming’ – we need come in out of the cold, we need an answer!!
An early warning – there is ‘some’ mathematics (or Cronin Porn as I call it) involved, ‘some’ concentration will be required, so please turn ‘it’ on!!
In search of ‘the answer’, I’ve looked for inspiration from the past two winners – the celebrated Nick Johns and Jamie Stewart (aka – JDS).
* In 2016 / 17 Nick won the FFUK League with 2424 points.
* In 2017 / 18 JDS won with 2388 points.
If we use an average of their winning scores – 2406 and divide this by 38 (which is the number of GW’s) it shows the average GW score of a winner to be 63.5 points – let’s round this up to 64
So to win FFUK you need to be scoring 64 points a week?
In simple terms, yes; but we now need to explore this further and translate it into individual player scores…
You could simply divide this 64 (average weekly winning score) by 11 (players on the pitch) to get a weekly (winning) average player score of 5.8 points.
So, if each of your players scores on average 5.8 points a week, you win the league?
Again, yes; but this is rudimentary, unrealistic and unfair!
How can we expect our bargain-basement 4.0 million defender to score the same point’s week in, week out as our big money, 12.5 million star striker?!
We now need to bring money and player value into the equation…
We are going to ‘assume’ the average squad value (over the course of the season) to be 102.5 million (it starts at 100 million, rises through the season and a decent team finishes with a squad value of circa 105 million).
Now park this.
I randomly looked at ten ‘good’ teams – the total average price of players on a ‘good’ teams bench each week is around 18 million (4 x 4.5 million pounds players warming it).
So, a measured estimation is that a ‘good’ team’s average value on the pitch each week is 84.5 million (102.5 million minus 18 million).
Through scientific methods, which I won’t bore you with, I deduce an FFUK League Winners ‘individual player points returns’ should equate to half their price –
i.e. a 12 million pound player should provide an average return of 6 points a week, for an 8 million pound player 4 points etc.
Please note this doesn’t include points for simply playing (2pts for 90 mins played need to be added).
So now our 12 million players average return should be 8 points (6 for half his value +2 for 90 mins playing time); our 8 million player is 6 points (4+2) etc…
If we take this 84.5 million (team on pitch value) and divide it by half (proposed ‘individual player points returns’) we get 42.25, which we’ll round down to 42
If we take the 42 ‘individual player’s points return’ and add-on the players playing time points of 22 (11 players multiplied by 2 points for 90 minutes played) we get 64
– Which is the average weekly score of an FFUK League Winner!!
A winner doesn’t believe in coincide – he / she believes in science and maths and becomes immortal!!
The other thing to consider is the Triple Captain, Bench Boost and Free Hit Chips, which ever so slightly distort this ideal weekly (league-winning) average score!
I very crudely work out a ‘good’ return for these 3 Chips to be approximately 60 points!
BB – 18pts, TC – 16pts, FH – 26pts.
If you take the Nick & JDS’s FFUK points winning average over the past two seasons – 2406, and minus these 60 Chip Points you get 2346, then divide this by the 38 GW’s and you get a new average of 62.
So, the practical information to take away is…
* To win the FFUK League you need to be averaging 64 points a week
(128 points in a DGW)
If we look at our current leader – Tim McEwan, he’s well on his way!
He currently has 378 points and is averaging 75.6 points a week (378 divided by 5 GW’s).
In fact, anyone who currently has 320 points (64 average weekly winning score x 5 GW’s) or over is on course for the title, which is currently everyone from 37th place and above!!
If you’re below 320 points, you’re already playing catch-up!!
Or, if we break it down to the fine minutiae, to win the FFUK League you need to…
* Average 62 Points on every non-Chip Game Week.
* 80 Bench Boost GW
* 78 Triple Captain GW
* 88 Free Hit GW
* Each of your players needs to be giving you a weekly return of at least half their value, plus 2.
Maybe go through your team and check – If they’re not, get ‘em out, they’re not providing value for money – they’re a lollygagger!!
* Money on the bench is wasted money; keep your bench value to a minimum – ideally 18 million or under.
Don’t simply bimble along in FPL with whimsical thoughts & ideas and crossing your fingers hoping you do well! Take control – think deep, use maths, be The Scientist!
Happy FFUKing, FFUKers…